Monthly Path (18-13)
Atalanta
Inter Milan
Rayo Vallecano
Pitt halftime lead
Auburn total TDs
Rushing TDs
900 Atalanta - Tough pick for me here but I think this is the better pick. Milan is the better team but is not in good form and have only won 3 of their last 10 matches and all of which were by 2 or more. Atalanta is an awful road team though which they are 1-1-7 in league play and have only 7 goals while giving up 15. More times than not I think they cover. Confidence:1
1230 Inter Milan- Lazio has had pretty good success against Inter in the past. Inter is the better team but from everything I read they are missing a lot of key players because of injuries. I think the most likely result is a draw here because Lazios form is not very good with only 3 wins in their last 10. Confidence:3
100 Real Madrid by 3- Celta Vigo is not a very good team so its hard for me to trust them here. Madrid could win by as much as they want to in this game. I say they get 3 here but not a fan of these picks. Confidence:1
350 Webb Simpson or Dustin Johnson- Confidence:2
400 Rayo Vallecano- I think they are the pick because I wouldn't be shocked if they even won this game. Villarreal has been in a really bad slump recently. I think Rayo at least draws here. Confidence:3
702 Maryland any other- This is the better pick in my mind. Maryland has some really talented players on their team. They have played some tough teams already this year but played really bad in 1 of their road games this year. That game was @OSU so its understandable. I am sort of on the middle between what most people think about Pitt. I think they are good and an underrated team that will be around come March. But I don't buy into the fact that they should be ranked yet. They really just haven't been tested enough to deserve it in my opinion. Pitt has 1 of the toughest home courts in the nation so I could see Pitt pulling away late here but I have to think Maryland is the pick here. Confidence:2
703 Pitt 1st half lead- Maryland only has about 5-7 scorers generally. Most of the time from what I have seen is they really rely on Wells and Layman to do most of it. I think Pitt playing at home gives them an edge and certainly nice to have the tie here. Confidence:1
705 New York Rangers- If Brobosky is in net then I like this pick. Confidence:3
705 Dallas Stars- Confidence:1
735 Brooklyn Nets- Confidence:2
830 - Now I am some just general thoughts about the game. This might not flow because I feel most people will just look at the odds and say -10 in a straight up game is almost always money. But I feel like in a big game like this you can just throw out the odds. The thing for me is I hate the SEC but I love it at the same time. I hate that it dominates year after year but at the same time no other conference can match up with it. I know people probably think I am crazy but since I still have a shot to win my Bowl Mania poll I am researching every possible stat for this game I can find. SEC all time against the ACC is 285-138, in bowl games SEC 34-18, games since 2010 27-11, this year 5-3(2 losses by Florida). The No. 2 team in the BCS Standings has won 8 of the past 11 National Championships. Honestly the more I dig and the more trends I find point to Auburn. Florida St played 6 teams this year that made it to a bowl game and those teams went 3-3. The one thing when looking at Florida St is how they killed Clemson since I consider them the best team they faced. That to me is why I still think they win this game. But I really cant get over how much this spread as gone up. This game opened to 7 but a ton of money is being put on Florida ST and now is up to 10 and frankly I just don't see a big reason as to why. The concern I have what happens mentally if Florida St goes down early or how to the handle pressure in the 4th quarter of a tight game. A team that hasn't been in pressure outside of the first half in almost any game this year. Whether as if Auburn goes down early we know they have come back.
The key in this game is I think who ever wins the turnover margin will win this game. For me Jameis's number are not that good. For him to throw 10 interceptions considering who he has played tells me he forces a lot of passes. I think one of the weak points for the ACC football teams this year is their offensive/ defensive lines aren't as physical as other conferences. I run numbers back time and time again and I still cant come to a consensus. I hate picking a one dimensional offense in a bowl game. But I think the numbers and trends show how and why the SEC dominates. I think Florida St has all the pressure on them and could struggle with that. My official prediction is FSU comes out hot but then Auburn finds a way to battle back. Auburn 34-30.
831 Auburn total TDs- Confidence:2
1030 total rushing TDs- Confidence:2
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