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Sunday, July 14, 2013

SFTC Picks for Monday 7/15

Monthly Path(52-30)
2 goals or fewer
France by 2
Haiti
28 or fewer
Yes


Trap Picks (4-7)



1200 2 goals or fewer- Neither of these teams have very good offense or at least they aren't consistent. Generally when these 2 teams play they are relatively low scoring games. Vegas has the odds as the under and favors the draw. That is the way I see this match. 1-1 draw. Confidence:2

230 France by 2- Now I know about womens soccer so this is just a guess. France is a huge favorite to win this game. I think this pick could come down to will Spain score. France looks like they have a very good defense so I don't see that happening. I got France 2-0. Confidence:1

705 Haiti- I am confused as to why the percentages are so towards El Salvador in this game. I think Honduras has under performed to this point in the tournament. But that Haiti has looked like the better team. I'm thinking Haiti at least draws this match. Haiti needs a win if they have any chance to advance. Confidence:4

935 Honduras- This is a tough game to predict because we don't know the mind set of Honduras. All Honduras needs to do is draw this game and they will advance. Trinidad and Tobago has not looked that great to this point. They are already eliminated so what do they have to play for? I would pick Honduras in this game to get a win but just be cautious. Confidence:2

Home Run Derby Predictions/Picks

815 Prince Fielder or Chris Davis- My breakdown of this pick is there are really only 5 guys that have a good shot to win. The other 3 I just don't see doing well at all. I could understand the reasoning for picking Any Other here. But I cant pick against Davis the way he is swinging the ball right now. I feel that he has the most to prove considering all the steroid talks that are circulating around him right now. I think Prince has a decent shot but it is really tough to win this event in back to back years. Confidence:2
Here are the odds for each and my prediction for where they are finish.
Chris Davis - 1   +400
Pedro Alvarez - 2   +600
Prince Fielder - 3  +350
Robinson Cano - 4  +500
Bryce Harper - 5  +500
David Wright- 6  +1000
Yoenis Cespedes - 7  +600
Michael Cuddyer- 8  +1000

 816 Robinson Cano- I have flip flopped on this pick a couple of times. I think it would be nice in a pick like this to have a the tip option. But I think experience could be a huge factor for winning this pick. This will be the third consecutive year that Cano is in the Derby. For those that don't know or don't remember he won it 2 years ago and got a 0 in first round last year. I think Cano will have a chip on his shoulder and will show he has something to prove. I got Cano 6-4. Confidence:2

945 28 or fewer- This is a lot of home runs but I think with the kind of players in this field I would like the over here. The under has won in previous years but I think the over is the pick here. The way I see it is the over will hit as long as 1 player has a monster round of around 10 home runs. Which giving the 4 guys I am predicting to advance I could see at least 1 of them doing that. If some of the lower picked players have monster rounds I might change my pick. But as of right now I have to take the over. Confidence:2

1015 Yes both get 6- The last couple of years this has went over. But the years before that you would almost always see it go under. I think under is the safer play but it could ultimately come down to who makes it to the finals and how many they hit until this point. I think if you see some players hit close to 20 home runs in the first couple of round they will become fatigued and will fade later. Confidence:2

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